SAPA has predictably forecast apocalyptic consequences to the poultry industry due to the introduction of import tariff rebates. This is in keeping with their quarterly predictions of imminent collapse, which have been a regular feature of the agricultural landscape since around 2016.
Despite the doom-and-gloom scenario, the large poultry producers have bounced back very successfully from the loadshedding and Avian Flu crisis.
So to paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of the poultry industry are being greatly exaggerated.
With regard to the rebates, journalist and economist Ayabonga Cawe has now joined ITAC as a commissioner. In this interview with MoneyWeb he discusses the impact of the poultry import rebate. Was it really a curate’s egg: only good in parts?
As Cawe says, this was a veterinary intervention, not a trade issue.
And columnist Riaan de Lange takes a typically light-hearted deep dive into the actual rebate scenario.
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Also showing huge volatility is the issue of food inflation. While some food processes are shooting up, others are coming down. Overall, though, the basic food basket is showing a steady overall increase. This is not good for people on small fixed incomes such as state pensions or grants, as the prices are always outgrowing their incomes.
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Not looking good is the agricultural forecast for 2024, with a predicted drop in the maize crop (a crucial component of chicken feed).
This bad news is reflected across the entire agricultural industry with climate uncertainty combined with animal diseases and of course our own home-grown problems such as loadshedding and infrastructure collapse.
But a little bit of good news is the new cold store in Durban, recently unveiled by MSC.
