Poultry Imports

 

In 2024, chicken imports showed mixed trends compared to 2023:

• Mechanically deboned meat (MDM) increased by 6%, averaging 19,910 metric tons (MT) per month.
• Chicken offal imports increased by 9%, averaging 7,805 MT.
• Bone-in cuts saw a sharp decline of 44%, dropping to 3,243 MT.
• Boneless chicken imports fell slightly by 4% to 202 MT.
• Overall, total chicken imports excluding MDM decreased by 8%, averaging 13,201 MT per month.

 

Source: SARS import statistics

 

Poultry Outlook 2025

The United States Department of Agriculture, USDA, forecasts that chicken meat production will increase by 3% to 1.65 million tons in Marketing Year (MY) 2025 as a result of a strengthening domestic sector.

Production is estimated to increase by 6% to 1.59 million tons as the industry has rebounded from the 2023 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak.

Decreasing food inflation and softening poultry prices are projected to boost domestic consumption of chicken meat, which is expected to increase by 2% to 1.88 million tons in 2025.

Imports are projected to decrease by a further 6% in 2025 to 300,000 tons, due to heightened domestic production and decreased competitiveness of imported product due to high tariffs and anti-dumping duties.

Chicken meat exports are predicted to rise by 8% to 70,000 tons in 2025, with poultry remaining a preferred protein for major markets. South Africa primarily exports to Southern Africa.

 

AGOA’s Unlikely Renewal

In a follow-up risk analysis on recent developments with the Trump administration, Chris Hattingh from the Centre for Risk Analysis highlighted the latest key developments that pose a threat to South Africa’s bilateral trade relations, especially within the context of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).

Hattingh outlined potential scenarios for South Africa-U.S. trade relations if AGOA is not renewed. He warned that businesses might need to find alternative export markets and factor in higher costs due to tariffs, which could lead to job layoffs and impact business profitability.

If AGOA is not renewed, the industries most impacted are agriculture and automotive. “Agriculture includes wine, citrus, and some areas of the poultry sectors as well.”

“We will need to see domestically what sort of pressures and requests farmers and others put on the U.S. administration. Do they want more protectionism? Do they favour certain markets over others in terms of imports to the U.S.?”

Hattingh added that this type of pressure could potentially lead to increased tariffs.

Furthermore, if Trump views the new BRICS alliance as a threat to U.S. trade and interests, he might threaten higher tariffs on products from countries like Brazil and South Africa. This uncertainty demands that companies stay updated on developments and adjust their supply chains and export targets accordingly.

“South Africa needs to develop other export markets to mitigate the potential loss of AGOA benefits,” Hattingh suggested. He also highlighted the U.S. entering a more transactional period in its foreign policy, and South Africa must engage accordingly.

 

Crack open insights with Chris Hattingh on the ChickenBytes Podcast

 

Market Access – Poultry

The following markets are currently closed for imports due to disease outbreaks:

1. Australia (HPAI)
2. Belgium (HPAI)
3. Canada (HPAI)
4. Chile (HPAI)
5. Denmark (HPAI)
6. France (HPAI)
7. Germany (AFS & HPAI)
8. Hungary (HPAI)
9. Israel (HPAI)
10. Netherlands (HPAI)
11. New Zealand (HPAI)
12. Poland (HPAI)
13. United Kingdom (HPAI)
14. Sweden (HPAI)
15. Zimbabwe (HPAI)

 

USA States banned for imports:

1. Iowa
2. Minnesota
3. Montana
4. Nevada
5. New Jersey
6. New York
7. Oregon
8. South Dakota
9. Utah
10. California
11. Alabama
12. Washington
13. Missouri
14. North Dakota
15. Arkansas
16. Georgia
17. Maryland
18. Ohio
19. Wisconsin
20. Colorado
21. Michigan
22. Kansas
23. Idaho
24. Pennsylvania
25. Indiana
26. Florida
27. Nebraska
28. North Carolina
29. Texas
30. New Mexico
31. Massachusetts
32. Illinois
33. Delaware
34. South Carolina
35. Puerto Rico

 

ChickenFacts is closely monitoring the progress of these markets to keep you updated on the latest movements.