The latest ChickenFacts poultry analysis offers a concise overview of key developments and disruptions in South Africa’s poultry sector. This edition highlights the significant impact of Brazil’s temporary export ban in 2025, examining how this event affected import volumes, pricing, and the broader local market.

 

Poultry Imports 2025

With Brazil as South Africa’s leading poultry supplier, the temporary import ban imposed in 2025 following a localised HPAI outbreak resulted in an eight-week supply disruption.

The impact was immediate:

• A sharp increase in import volumes once the ban was lifted, as importers scrambled to restore supply.
• Supply pressure in the processed meat sector due to the absence of MDM (mechanically de-boned meat).
• Rising prices for offals and low-cost protein products.
• Strain on informal traders and low-income households.

 

SARS trade statistics show that chicken imports declined sharply in June and July 2025 following Brazil’s closure due to the HPAI outbreak in May 2025, which significantly disrupted supply.

Import volumes fell well below the 2025 monthly averages, particularly for both total chicken imports (excluding MDM) and mechanically deboned meat (MDM).

However, import volumes began to recover as markets reopened, indicating that the earlier declines were largely driven by the temporary loss of Brazilian supply.

Based on the 2025 monthly average import volumes, total chicken imports (excluding MDM) averaged 13,919 metric tons (Mt) per month, while Mechanically Deboned Meat (MDM) imports averaged 17,121 Mt per month.

• June 2025: Compared with the monthly average, total chicken imports (excluding MDM) declined by 52%, representing a reduction of 7,305 Mt per month. Over the same period, MDM imports decreased by 47%, equivalent to 8,064 Mt per month.
• July 2025: The decline intensified, with total chicken imports (excluding MDM) falling by 66%, or 9,209 Mt below the monthly average. MDM imports declined by 67%, representing a reduction of 11,413 Mt.

 

This disruption demonstrated that without diversified and reliable import channels, South Africa’s food security becomes vulnerable.

The absence of a regionalisation agreement with Brazil means that a single outbreak can shut down the entire supply line, even if only one region is affected.

 

 

 

 

Poultry Imports by Category: 2025

 

Poultry Imports by Country: 2025

 

Decline of Poultry Imports: 2021-2025

 

Poultry Exports by Country: 2025

 

Decline of Poultry Exports: 2021-2025

 

Outlook for South Africa’s Poultry Market

South Africa’s poultry sector enters the year under intense trade uncertainty, persistent biosecurity shocks, and shifting geopolitical pressures.

The combined effects of AGOA’s one‑year renewal, unresolved US quota negotiations, and the urgent need for Brazil’s regionalisation decision will shape both pricing and supply stability in the months ahead.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service forecasts a 2% increase in chicken production by 2026 as the industry recovers from the 2023 HPAI shock.

Imports are expected to decline by 5% due to high tariffs and anti‑dumping duties. Consumption is expected to rise marginally to 1.92 million tons.

These trends suggest moderate recovery but continued vulnerability to trade policy shifts.

 

Imports: Impact of Middle East Conflict on trade routes

The escalation of conflict in early March 2026 has affected Brazilian transit routes, including closure of the Strait of Hormuz and suspension of Suez Canal transits.

Major carriers face a 40% drop in container replenishment and reduced weekly allocation. Empty reefer supplies are running low, increasing pressure on other carriers.

Global trade has been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope due to chokepoint disruptions, decreasing vessel capacity and raising freight rates with extra surcharges.

While the Brazil–South Africa route does not cross the Suez Canal or Strait of Hormuz, it will still face major disruption from global maritime network changes starting March 2026.

 

Significant impacts are expected in South Africa:

• MDM Imports: Shipping delays directly affect MDM prices, and therefore the affordability of processed meats for lower income consumers.
• Port Congestion: Increased East–West traffic via the Cape of Good Hope is causing delays and vessel omissions at South African ports.
• Increased Freight Rates: Global fuel surcharges, emergency surcharges, and equipment shortages are driving costs upward.
• Cost Escalation: Importers are incurring substantial demurrage and storage expenses due to ongoing port congestion and administrative delays.
• Exchange Rate Volatility: Recent currency volatility is compounding freight surcharges and logistics costs, adding further cost pressure for importers.

 

Nedbank reports that consumers will face double-digit increases in meat prices until at least April 2026.

This ongoing inflation is due to higher shipping costs and local disease outbreaks, including Foot and Mouth Disease affecting beef and African Swine Fever impacting pork.

 

Middle East Conflict Threatens Fuel and Food Prices

Escalating tensions involving Iran pose a direct inflationary threat to South Africa’s fuel costs, which would cascade into feed, transport, and ultimately retail poultry prices. This risk compounds existing cost pressures already highlighted across the sector.

 

UAE Export Volumes Likely Redirected Locally

The South African Poultry Association (SAPA) has indicated that poultry originally destined for the UAE could be diverted into the domestic market, adding short‑term supply but potentially pressuring producer margins.

 

AGOA’s One‑Year Renewal: Stability Deferred

The United States renewed AGOA for just one year, compressing South Africa’s negotiation window and intensifying tensions around poultry market access.

The shortened horizon undermines predictability for exporters and forces accelerated talks on reciprocal tariffs and poultry access conditions.

 

HPAI: The Most Persistent Disruptor

HPAI remains the single largest threat to poultry trade continuity. The blanket ban on Brazil following last year’s outbreak has highlighted South Africa’s dependence on Brazilian MDM and offal.

Brazil supplies over 90% of MDM and 73% of poultry imports excluding MDM. Should Brazil face an HPAI outbreak like Argentina’s in February, the absence of a regionalisation agreement would likely lead to substantial price hikes, disproportionately affecting low-income households.

Regionalisation is essential to prevent prolonged supply gaps and protect affordability for low‑income households.

Regionalisation would allow imports from unaffected Brazilian states, maintaining supply and food security while safeguarding biosecurity.

 

Market Access: Chicken Imports

The following markets are in the process of RE-OPENING:

 

• Spain – Self-declared HPAI-free on 18 February 2026. Awaiting official submission of surveillance and recovery data.
• Ireland – Self-declared HPAI-free on 22 January 2026. Close-out reports have been received and are currently under evaluation by the Department of Agriculture.

 

Prompt re-opening of markets once they are officially declared HPAI-free is crucial for strengthening market resilience. Delays in restoring access can disrupt supply chains, jeopardising food security and limiting affordable protein options for low-income households.

 

The following markets are currently CLOSED due to HPAI outbreaks:

• Argentina
• Belgium
• Northern Ireland (UK)
• United Kingdom
• Denmark
• France
• Netherlands
• Poland
• Hungary
• Germany
• Canada
• Austria

 

Update on USA Poultry States

 

ChickenFacts remains dedicated to delivering fact-checked poultry insights and comprehensive market updates. We consistently track developments within the industry, both domestically and internationally, ensuring that consumers and stakeholders are informed with the most up-to-date and accurate information.