South Africa’s poultry industry is in a markedly different position from the crisis story it continues to tell. The country is now recognised as the world’s second most competitive poultry producer, having overtaken the United States on key efficiency metrics such as feed conversion and production cycle length.

This global standing reflects a sector that has invested, consolidated and adapted, not one that is teetering on the brink and in need of ever tighter protection from imports.

 

Profit Surges Among Leading Producers

The latest financial results of leading producers underline how far the industry has moved from peril to profitability.

Astral Foods, South Africa’s largest integrated poultry producer, reported group revenue of R22.6 billion for its 2025 financial year, up 10.4% from 2024. Operating profit rose to R1.25 billion, an increase of 10.9%, and earnings grew by 16%, supported by higher broiler slaughter volumes, improved selling price realisations and strong cost management.

These results suggest that leading producers are operating from a position of financial strength rather than that of an ongoing crisis. Rainbow Chicken, now listed as a standalone entity, shows a similar pattern. For the year ended June 2025, Rainbow’s revenue increased by 9% to R15.8 billion, while EBITDA surged by 66.2% to R1.06 billion. Earnings jumped to R571.2 million, a 216.9% increase compared with the prior year, and headline earnings rose by more than 220%.

The company’s turnaround strategy, focused on lowering costs and improving efficiency across the value chain, has clearly paid off in an environment where imports are heavily constrained.

The policy question is whether the extraordinary levels of trade protection introduced during a period of industry distress remain justified today given that the industry is clearly thriving.

 

The Impact of Anti-Dumping and MFN Duties

These profit surges have unfolded alongside a sustained tightening of trade policy on poultry. Since the introduction of anti-dumping duties and, in 2020, Most Favoured Nation customs duties on imported poultry, bone-in chicken imports have plummeted.

SARS trade statistics show that imports of bone-in portions dropped by 77% between 2019 and 2025, from 224,198 tonnes to just 50,814 tonnes. In 2025, imported bone-in chicken accounted for only 2% of South Africa’s overall chicken consumption.

The MFN duties are steep. Frozen bone-in portions face a 62% tariff, whole frozen chicken 82%, boneless portions 42%, carcasses 31% and offal 30%.

These measures, combined with specific anti-dumping duties, have effectively wiped out competitive imports in the bone-in segment and granted local producers a near monopoly over brown meat.

The result is a domestic market where leading companies enjoy strong pricing power and rising margins, while consumers, particularly lower-income households, are deprived of access to more affordable imported chicken.

Trade policy should strike an appropriate balance between supporting domestic production and ensuring affordable protein for South African consumers.

 

South Africa’s Rise in Global Efficiency Rankings

South Africa’s technical efficiency in poultry production has improved to the point where it now ranks second globally. The BFAP Competitiveness Benchmark Report finds that South Africa has achieved the lowest feed conversion ratio among major producing nations and the shortest average production cycle at 31.5 days.

Feed conversion efficiency has improved by more than 14% over the past decade, and production costs are now lower than in the United States and significantly below European benchmarks, despite subsidies in those markets. This is a sector that can compete, not one that needs to be shielded indefinitely.

 

Producers Turn to Export Markets

With domestic and regional markets largely capped, local producers are increasingly looking outward. Export strategies now focus on value-added chicken products, particularly cooked breast meat destined for markets such as the EU, the UK and Saudi Arabia.

Inspections and residue monitoring programmes are underway to unlock these opportunities, and although total chicken exports decreased by 19% year-on-year to 51,888 tonnes for the year ending June 2025, the strategic intent is clear. Producers want to grow by selling higher-value products abroad, leveraging the very efficiencies that have made South Africa a top global performer.

 

The Contradiction in SAPA’s Narrative

This is where the contradiction with SAPA’s narrative becomes stark. On the one hand, the industry argues that it remains vulnerable to “dumped” imports and requires ongoing protection.

On the other hand, it celebrates its status as the world’s second most competitive poultry producer and actively pursues export markets for value-added chicken products.

The original rationale for anti-dumping and MFN duties was to address unfair pricing and stabilise a struggling industry. That objective has been achieved. Bone-in imports have been sharply curtailed, local producers have rebuilt their balance sheets and profitability has returned.

 

Trade Protections in Effect and a Competition Commission Inquiry

The tariffs and anti-dumping duties currently in effect sharply restrict market access for imported chicken, especially lower-cost bone-in portions.

While these measures protect domestic producers, they also push affordable chicken out of reach for many lower LSM consumers while affording producers with pricing power.

Meanwhile, the Competition Commission’s final terms of reference (ToR) were gazetted in September last year to examine the entire poultry value chain: feed, genetics, day‑old chicks, contract growing, abattoirs, logistics, and retail. Despite the formalities, there have been no public hearings, no interim findings, and no visible enforcement actions.  To date, there has been limited visible public progress on the inquiry.

In practice, the current regime entrenches market concentration, limits competition and keeps prices elevated in a country where many households rely on chicken as their primary source of protein.

Lower LSM consumers, who would benefit most from cheaper imported bone-in chicken, are effectively locked out of these options by policy choices that favour producer interests over consumer welfare.

 

A Sector That No Longer Needs Protection

An objective reading of the data shows that South Africa’s poultry industry is no longer in peril. It is profitable, efficient and globally competitive.

Astral and Rainbow’s latest earnings, the dramatic decline in bone-in imports, and the country’s rise to second place in global efficiency rankings all point to a sector that has moved beyond crisis and into consolidation.

Maintaining high tariffs and anti-dumping duties under these conditions is less about protection from unfair trade and more about preserving a comfortable status quo for dominant producers.

If the industry is confident enough to compete in export markets, it should be equally prepared to face fair competition at home.

A thorough, overdue review of poultry tariffs and anti-dumping measures would align policy with current market realities, restore some balance between producer and consumer interests and allow lower-income households to benefit from affordable imported chicken.

South Africa’s poultry industry has demonstrated that it can compete successfully. It is therefore timely for policymakers to review whether current tariff and anti-dumping measures continue to serve their original purpose, or whether a more balanced approach can support both a competitive domestic industry and affordable food for South African consumers.