South Africa’s poultry sector enters mid‑2026 with modest production recovery, softer import volumes, and several important market reopenings that slightly ease supply‑side risk. Logistics costs, HPAI volatility, and slow administrative close‑outs continue to shape the landscape.

 

Production and demand: Recovery continues, but affordability remains tight

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects chicken production to increase by about 2% in 2026 to 1.68 million tonnes, supported by improved feed availability.

Consumption is expected to rise to around 1.92 million tons, reinforcing poultry’s role as the most affordable protein.

Imports are forecast to decline by roughly 5% to around 308,000 tonnes, while exports are expected to grow modestly.

Price pressure persists due to elevated freight costs and disease‑related disruptions across other protein sectors.

 

Imports: Lower volumes, higher friction

Key 2026 dynamics:

• Imports remain constrained by tariffs, anti‑dumping duties, and HPAI‑related closures.
• Freight costs remain elevated, driven by global rerouting around the Cape and congestion at South African ports.
• MDM continues to dominate import volumes (±53% in early 2025), essential for processed meats.
• Exchange‑rate volatility amplifies landed‑cost increases. The 2025 Brazil disruption still shapes risk perceptions: South Africa remains heavily dependent on a single supplier, and the absence of a regionalisation agreement with Brazil leaves the trade system exposed to market disruptions.

 

Latest Import Stats – Jan to Apr 2026

 

 

 

Exports

Exports are projected to increase by around 5% to 65,000 tons in 2026, driven by cooked chicken products.

SACU (Southern African Customs Union) remains the core market. Outside of Africa, the primary destination for South Africa’s value-added chicken exports is the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

While the vast majority of South Africa’s chicken exports remain within the Southern African region, the local industry has made a major strategic push to expand its footprint in the Middle East.

However, South Africa’s fragmented provincial structures, slow certification processes and limited veterinary capacity undermine confidence. Exporters have emphasised the need for government‑to‑government engagement to unlock inspections for the UK, EU and Saudi Arabia.

Exports remain too small to shift domestic pricing but continue to support diversification and plant utilisation.

 

Exports Summary: 12 months ending April 2026

Chicken remained the largest export category in April 2026 at 3,877 MT, broadly flat month-on-month (0% MoM) and down 23% year-on-year (YoY).

Stability at the total level reflected gains in boneless cuts (+62% MoM), fresh/chilled cuts (+16% MoM), and MDM (+16% MoM), offset by declines in offal (-29% MoM) and prepared/preserved products (-50% MoM).

Source: AMIE and SARS trade statistics

 

Market Access – As of June 2026

 Newly Reopened Poultry Markets

• Republic of Ireland – HPAI restriction lifted 5 June 2026
• Argentina – HPAI restriction lifted 26 May 2026
• Northern Ireland (UK) – restriction lifted 26 May 2026
• Spain – restriction lifted 23 March 2026

 

Poultry Markets Currently OPEN

• Argentina
• Australia
• Brazil
• Eswatini
• Northern Ireland
• New Zealand
• Spain
• Thailand
• United Kingdom (Granted country-level zoning: England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales)

 

Poultry Markets CLOSED

• Belgium
• Canada
• Chile
• China
• Denmark
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Namibia
• Netherlands
• Poland
• Sweden

 

Outlook: Tight supply, slow normalisation

Domestic production is improving, but not enough to offset logistics‑driven cost pressures.

Imports remain essential, especially for MDM‑based products relied on by low‑income households.

Disease volatility is structural, reinforcing the need for regionalisation agreements and faster reopening protocols.

Market access improvements help, but South Africa still relies on a narrow group of suppliers.