South Africa’s poultry sector experienced one of its most volatile years in recent memory. Across 2025, the industry navigated global price swings, a temporary import ban on Brazil, sharp feed cost reversals, and shifting consumer behaviour.

Using NAMC’s Poultry Products Price Monitor reports, this annual review outlines how these dynamics shaped chicken affordability for households and pricing power for producers.

 

1. Global Poultry Prices: A Year of Early Tightness and Late Softening

The international poultry meat price index began 2025 on a strong upward trajectory, rising 7.5 % year‑on‑year in Q1.

By mid‑year, prices plateaued, with Q2 showing zero quarter‑on‑quarter movement.

In Q3, global prices fell sharply, dropping 6.35 % year‑on‑year.

By Q4, the index softened further, ending the year 1.76 % lower than Q4 2024.

 

Annual takeaway: Global poultry prices eased significantly in the second half of 2025, creating favourable conditions for imports and reducing international cost pressure.

 

2. Imports: A Year Split in Two

 

Early 2025: Declines driven by Brazil’s HPAI ban

• Q1 imports fell 11.2 % year‑on‑year.
• Q2 imports collapsed 32.17 % year‑on‑year.
• Q3 imports fell 35 % year‑on‑year.

 

The reports attribute this to the temporary suspension of Brazilian imports. Once the ban lifted, imports surged:

• Q4 imports jumped 55.1 % year‑on‑year.
• Q4 (financial year) imports rose 19.6 % year‑on‑year.

 

Lower‑cost cuts dominated the rebound:

• Drumsticks +259 %
• Feet +230 %
• Wings +163 %
• MDM +108 % (Issue 24)

 

Annual takeaway: Imports were constrained for most of 2025 but surged at year‑end, reshaping competition and putting pressure on local producers, especially in frozen and IQF categories.

 

3. Producer Prices: Pricing Power Strengthened Across 2025

Producer prices tell a clear story of recovery:

Period	Frozen YoY (%)	Fresh YoY (%)	IQF YoY (%)
Q1 2025	–7.18	–1.74	+1.22
Q2 2025	+1.06	+10.75	+14.70
Q3 2025	+0.82	+17.66	+17.85
Q4 2025	+4.43	+18.11	+10.93
Q4 (financial year)	+4.83	+16.31	+12.09

Annual takeaway: Producer prices rose steadily throughout 2025, especially for fresh and IQF products. This reflects stronger domestic demand, cost recovery after high feed prices early in the year, and tighter supply during the Brazil import ban.

 

4. Retail Prices: Consumers Faced Rising Costs in the Second Half of the Year

Retail prices moved differently from producer prices. In early 2025, retail prices were mixed, with some declines in Q1 and Q2, but by mid-to-late 2025 retail prices rose consistently, with all major categories increasing in both Q3 and Q4.

 Annual increases:

• IQF +6.20 %
• Frozen non‑IQF +5.51 %
• Fresh portions +4.58 %
• Giblets +4.16 %
• Fresh whole chicken –2.01 %

 

Annual takeaway: Retail prices lagged producer prices early in the year but rose sharply in the second half, especially for frozen and IQF products. Whole fresh chicken remained a price‑signal product, with retailers keeping increases minimal.

 

5. Feed Costs: From Extreme Highs to Deep Lows

Feed costs swung dramatically:

Period	Maize YoY (%)	Soybeans YoY (%)	Sunflower YoY (%)
Q1 2025	+31.90	+8.60	+9.61
Q2 2025	+6.19	–15.63	–0.14
Q3 2025	–4.10	–15.24	+10.10
Q4 2025	–26.94	–20.66	+1.24
Q4 (financial year)	–29.86	–23.11	–2.10

Annual takeaway: Feed costs were extremely high early in 2025 but collapsed by year‑end. Producer prices did not fall immediately because cost relief takes time to filter through the value chain.

 

6. Farm‑to‑Retail Price Spread: Producers Captured More Value

Across all four quarters, farm value share increased significantly:

• Q1: +9.71 % YoY
• Q2: +17.74 % YoY
• Q3: +26.64 % YoY
• Q4: +19.37 % YoY
• Q4 (financial year): +8.40 % YoY

 

Annual takeaway: Producers captured a larger share of the final retail price throughout 2025. Retail margins compressed due to competition, imports, and consumer price sensitivity.

 

The Full Picture of 2025

The combined NAMC data shows that 2025 was a year of:

• Early global price pressure followed by late‑year softening
• Import disruptions and a dramatic rebound
• Strong producer price recovery
• Rising retail prices in the second half
• Feed cost volatility with major declines late in the year
• Producers gaining pricing power while retailers absorbed more margin pressure

 

For producers, 2025 marked a return to stronger margins and improved pricing power, supported by recovering producer prices, late-year feed cost relief, and periods of tighter domestic supply. However, the year also showed that this stronger position remains exposed to sudden shifts in imports, exchange rates, feed markets, and consumer demand.

For policymakers, the year highlights how global shocks, feed volatility, and import dynamics directly shape domestic affordability. It also reinforces the need for policy responses that balance food security, fair competition, and protection against avoidable supply disruptions without placing additional pressure on consumers.

For consumers, chicken remained the most affordable protein, but price increases were unavoidable in the second half of the year. Value for money remains a key driver for South African consumers, particularly as shoppers continue to favour accessible cuts, promotions, and products that stretch household meals further.

Food security remains dependent on a well-functioning poultry value chain that combines efficient domestic production with reliable import supply. The 2025 experience demonstrates that resilience is strongest when consumers have access to multiple sources of affordable poultry products.

Overall, 2025 was not defined by a single trend, but by the interaction between global markets, domestic supply constraints, input-cost swings, and consumer affordability.

The poultry value chain ended the year in a stronger position than it began, but the data makes clear that resilience, price discipline, and policy certainty will remain essential in shaping a more stable and affordable poultry market in 2026 and beyond.

 

Source: NAMC Poultry Price Monitor, Issue 21-25