Global poultry trade is experiencing significant changes due to geopolitical tariff disputes and the ongoing battle against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) impacting poultry and egg supplies worldwide.

Since early this year, HPAI outbreaks have been reported in over 34 countries. As a result, Brazil, which remains HPAI-free, has emerged as the leading chicken exporter to major markets. This pivot in poultry trade has been crucial as outbreaks of HPAI in other major producing nations have reduced global poultry availability.

EU countries have turned to Brazil, Ukraine, Argentina, and Thailand to compensate for reduced domestic production.

 

Source: RaboResearch and AgriBusiness

 

Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq have diversified their imports, sourcing more from Brazil and Ukraine to mitigate risks associated with HPAI outbreaks.

Since 2023, the Philippine’s has substantially increased imports from Brazil, while in Africa, Brazil is the leading poultry exporter to South Africa, Libya, Egypt, Ghana, Angola, and Algeria.

 

Source: RaboResearch and AgriBusiness

 

Trade Tariffs Disputes

Brazil has announced plans to reduce import duties on nine essential items, including sugar and sardines, in an effort to control rapidly rising prices. This move contrasts with President Donald Trump’s protectionist measures and the trade conflicts they have sparked.

Brazil’s decision to ease certain import barriers reflects a shift from its traditionally closed and protectionist economic stance. Meanwhile, President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on imports from China, along with threats of broader tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada—and the retaliatory tariffs from China and Canada—have raised concerns about the possibility of a full-blown trade war.

In retaliation to the new US tariffs, China has announced import levies ranging from 10% to 15% on $21 billion worth of American agricultural goods.

This measure is anticipated to substantially affect imports of pork offal and chicken feet, prompting China to increasingly depend on supply from Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, and other European Union countries.

 

The Critical Role of Open Global Trade

The persistent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have highlighted the indispensable value of open global trade in stabilising markets, safeguarding food security, and fostering economic resilience.

As the poultry industry faces disruptions on a global scale, countries reliant on imports have turned to diversified trade partnerships to meet domestic demand, underscoring the need for flexible and inclusive trade practices.

 

South Africa’s Protectionist Policies

While other nations are leveraging open trade to adapt to HPAI-related disruptions, South Africa’s protectionist approach to poultry trade remains a double-edged sword.

Restrictions on bone-in poultry imports—imposed to protect local producers—have created an artificially isolated domestic market. These policies carry significant downsides:

• High tariffs and restrictions lead to inflated local prices, making poultry less affordable for consumers, particularly in lower-income households.
• By limiting competition, protectionism can deter advancements in production methods and industry efficiency, restricting South Africa’s ability to scale its poultry sector sustainably. While implementing these measures under the guise of local development, little sustainable development of the sector is demonstrated and the future sustainability of this value chain becomes threatened.
• Dependence on localised supply chains exposes the market to shocks such as disease outbreaks or production shortfalls, exacerbating risks during crises like the current HPAI pandemic.

 

To navigate the complexities of global market disruptions effectively, South Africa and similar nations must pursue a balanced approach—one that harmonises the protection of domestic industries with the advantages of open and diversified trade.

 

USA Bird Flu Pandemic Update

The ongoing battle against bird flu has prompted significant developments in vaccine research and strategic responses by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, the decision to vaccinate poultry remains a contentious issue within the industry.

Zoetis, a leading vaccine manufacturer, has received conditional approval from the USDA for an H5N2 bird flu vaccine.

The USDA’s conditional license signifies that the vaccine meets safety standards and shows a “reasonable expectation” of effectiveness.

However, it is not yet approved for commercial use, and its deployment remains uncertain.

 

USDA’s Comprehensive Strategy

In response to the escalating crisis, the USDA has unveiled a $1 billion strategy to address HPAI. This five-pronged approach includes:

1. 1. Investing in Biosecurity Measures: Expanding Wildlife Biosecurity Assessments to safeguard farms from wild bird transmission, which accounts for 83% of HPAI cases.
   2. Providing Financial Relief: Allocating $400 million to support affected farmers and accelerate flock repopulation.
   3. Enhancing Vaccine Research: Committing $100 million to develop effective vaccines.
   4. Reducing Regulatory Burdens: Simplifying processes to encourage innovation and reduce consumer costs.
   5. Exploring Import Options: Considering temporary import measures to stabilise the market.

 

Industry Concerns and Opposition to Vaccination

Despite these advancements, the U.S. poultry industry remains divided on the use of vaccines. The broiler industry, which accounts for a significant portion of U.S. chicken meat production, opposes mass vaccination due to concerns over international trade restrictions. Many trading partners refuse imports from countries that vaccinate poultry, fearing that vaccinated birds with masked symptoms may still carry the virus.

Daniel Perez, a poultry medicine expert at the University of Georgia College of Veterinary Medicine expressed concern that vaccinating poultry might enable silent spread, where asymptomatic birds transmit the virus.

 

Bird Flu Vaccines in South Africa

The poultry industry is urgently appealing to the government to consider easing biosecurity protocols for approved HPAI vaccines in order to alleviate the impact of bird flu outbreaks.

With no government compensation for culling chicken flocks, farmers consider vaccination the only realistic solution to bird flu outbreaks.

The vaccination rollout has encountered delays due to farmers’ inability to comply with the stringent biosecurity protocols set by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD).

According to a recent IOL article, the Department of Agriculture spokesperson, Joylene van Wyk, stated: “The department signed into effect the protocol on vaccination against HPAI in November 2023.  This Protocol outlines conditions under which farms will be allowed to vaccinate, and the main focus areas are biosecurity, surveillance and traceability.”

“We are engaging with the South African Poultry Association to refine some measures in order to come up with a protocol that is practically implementable and workable, while ensuring early detection and managing the outbreak should a farm be infected,” van Wyk added.

While South Africa’s poultry industry views bird flu vaccinations as its only feasible solution to potential outbreaks, the move comes with several challenges including export barriers and silent virus transmission in asymptomatic carriers.

Vaccines may offer a promising solution, however, navigating the future of avian flu management requires broad economic considerations and stringent biosecurity measures.

Meanwhile, ChickenFacts is diligently tracking vaccine developments in the U.S., which are likely to influence policies in other poultry-producing countries, including South Africa.