Local Food Inflation Statistics

The Household Affordability Index reports an slight decrease of R17,63 (-0,3%) in the average household food basket, bringing the total to R5 383,81 in February 2026, down from R5 401,44 in January.

 

Month-on-Month Comparisons (Jan 2026 vs. Feb 2026)

 

Price Changes in Poultry and Meat Products (Month-on-Month)

Description	Price Change	Per Quantity
Frozen chicken portions	-R4.27 (-1%)	10kg
Chicken feet	-R0.84 (-1%)	2kg
Gizzards	-R2.49 (-2%)	2kg
Chicken livers	+R0.85 (+1%)	2kg
Beef	-R8.62 (-4%)	2kg
Beef Liver	+R3.38 (+3%)	2kg
Wors	+R5.44 (+4%)	2kg
Beef tripe	-R2.59 (-2%)	2kg

 

Notable Price Increases (Month-on-Month)

Item	Month-on-Month Change
Onions	+9%
Carrots	+5%
Canned Beans	+4%

 

Notable Price Decreases (Month-on-Month)

Item	Month-on-Month Change
Soup	-8%
Tomatoes	-6%
Butternut	-12%
Green Pepper	-7%

 

Year-on-Year Comparisons (Feb 2025 vs. Feb 2026)

The average household food basket increased by R70,59 (1,3%) from R5 313,22 in February 2025 to R5 383,81 in February 2026.

 

Notable Price Increases (Year-on-Year)

Item	Year-on-Year Change
Onions	+13%
Curry powder	+5%
Frozen chicken portions	+8%
Chicken Feet	+4%
Gizzards	+15%
Beef liver	+22%
Beef	+20%
Wors	+12%
Beef tripe	+7%
Fish	+6%
Polony	+8%
Carrots	+25%
Butternut	+7%
Spinach	+7%
Peanut butter	+6%
Apricot jam	+5%

 

Notable Price Decreases (Year-on-Year)

Item	Year-on-Year Change
Maize meal	-8%
Rice	-20%
Cake flour	-5%
Sugar beans	-18%
Potatoes	-15%
Eggs	-13%
Chicken livers	-4%
Tomatoes	-10%
Green Pepper	-6%
Apples	-4%
Margerine	-5%

 

Pork Prices Expected to Rise

Eskort has warned that pork prices may rise in the coming months due to disease outbreaks.

South Africa loses about 7,000 pigs weekly to ASF and FMD, which, while only a small fraction of the total slaughtered, can push pork prices up by around 10% with just a 2% shortage.

Recently, wholesale pork prices have jumped from R32 to R40 per kilogramme. The industry’s surplus stock is now depleted, so further price increases are likely as supply continues to tighten.

 

Meat Retail Price Statistics: February 2026

The monthly SAPPO Retail Price Statistics Report provides detailed statistics and trends on the retail prices of various meat products, including pork, chicken, beef, and lamb.

 

Monthly Price Changes:

• Pork: Average retail prices of selected pork products (incl. Bacon products) reached R125.62/kg, 2.1% higher than in January 2026.
• Chicken: Chicken retail prices reached R69.43/kg, 0.1% lower than in January 2026.
• Beef: Beef retail prices were 2.1% lower in February 2026 than in January 2026, reaching R165.84/kg.
• Lamb: Lamb prices were 3.6% lower in February 2026 than in January 2026, reaching R184.80/kg.

 

Annual Price Changes:

• Pork: Average retail prices of selected pork products (incl. Bacon) were 12.6% higher in February 2026 compared to February 2025.
• Chicken: Chicken retail prices were on average 3.5% lower in February 2026 compared to February 2025.
• Beef: Beef retail prices were 27.9% higher in February 2026 compared to February 2025.
• Lamb: Lamb retail prices were 9.4% higher in February 2026 compared to February 2025.

 

Source: AgriOrbit

 

Central Energy Fund: Price prediction of the 12 March 2026

There are growing concerns regarding the impact of fuel price increases on the supply chain and the ultimate impact on consumers.

The Central Energy Fund published their price prediction on the 12th of March.

• Diesel 50ppm increase with R6.74686
• ULP93 increase with R3.61817
• ULP95 increase with R3.97802
• IP increases with R8.53084

 

Additionally, South African consumers are set to experience significant effects as meat prices in March 2026 are being hit by a combination of escalating freight expenses and domestic livestock health crises:

• Processed Meats (such as polony and viennas): Surging MDM (mechanically deboned meat) costs and shipping setbacks are pushing up retail prices.
• Impact of Animal Diseases: Outbreaks of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and African Swine Fever (ASF) have reduced the available reserves of livestock, contributing to further price hikes.

 

 

Global Food Inflation – February 2026

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 125.3 points in February 2026, up 0.9% from January. The index remained 1% lower year‑on‑year.

 

Meat: +0.8%

• Bovine and ovine meat prices increased, driven by strong import demand from China and the United States.
• Pig and poultry meat prices rose slightly, reversing part of January’s decline.
• Sheep meat reached record highs, contributing significantly to the monthly increase.

 

Cereals: +1.1%

• Wheat prices rose 1.8%, supported by frost damage risks in Europe and the United States, and continued logistical disruptions in Russia and the Black Sea region.
• Coarse grains (maize, sorghum, barley) saw modest increases.
• Rice prices edged up 0.4%, supported by steady demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.
• Despite the monthly rise, cereal prices remained 3.5% below February 2025 levels.

 

Vegetable Oils: +3.3%

• Prices reached their highest level since June 2022.
• Palm oil increased due to strong global demand and lower output in Southeast Asia.
• Soybean oil rose on expectations of supportive US biofuel policies.
• Rapeseed oil rebounded, while sunflower oil eased slightly due to increased exports from Argentina.

 

Dairy: –1.2%

• Cheese prices declined, especially in the European Union, driving the overall drop.
• Skimmed and whole milk powder prices increased, supported by strong demand.
• Butter prices rose for the first time since June 2025, though not enough to offset cheese declines.
• Dairy prices fell to their lowest level since January 2024.

 

Sugar: –4.1%

• Sugar prices fell to their lowest level since October 2020.
• The decline was driven by expectations of ample global supply, supported by strong production prospects in major exporters.

 

Despite a brief easing in the cost of the average household food basket, the broader picture shows a market still under pressure from disease‑related livestock losses, tightening meat supplies, rising freight costs, and steep fuel price increases.

With global commodity trends adding further volatility, South African consumers are likely to face continued strain in the months ahead.

Close monitoring of supply chain risks, energy costs, and agricultural health challenges will be essential as households, retailers, and policymakers navigate an increasingly unpredictable food economy.