South African households faced ongoing increases in staple food costs in 2024. While frozen chicken (IQF) prices remained relatively stable year-on-year, maize meal, staple fruits and vegetables, and sugar beans experienced increases of over 10% during the same period.

 

Month-on-Month Comparisons

The average cost of a household food basket increased slightly last month. The Household Affordability Index reported an average food basket cost of R5,383.38 in December, an increase of R22,34 from November 2024.

Developed by the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PMBEJD), the index tracks the prices of 44 essential food items across 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries in various provinces.

“In December, 21 of the 44 foods tracked experienced price increases, while 22 saw decreases,” the PMBEJD’s report stated.

Notable price hikes included spinach (up 9%), bananas (7%), apples (9%), and white bread (4%). Additionally, smaller but significant increases were recorded for chicken feet, tomatoes, carrots, and canned beans, which rose by around 2–3%.

In contrast, potatoes and onions offered some relief with price declines of 5% and 14%, respectively.

 

Year-on-Year Comparisons

In December 2024, the national average food basket was R145.18 more expensive than in December 2023. Retailer surveys in major metropolitan areas revealed notable price fluctuations for staple items:

Frozen chicken portions (10kg) saw a slight decrease of 1%, from R408.68 in December 2023 to R403.27 in December 2024.

Chicken feet (2kg) increased by 4%, rising from R82.42 to R85.84 year-on-year.

Chicken livers (2kg) saw a significant decrease of 8%, from R83.69 to R76.76.

Maize meal (30kg): Increased 18% from R281.65 to R332.20.

White Bread (25 loaves): Increased by 1% from R424.00 to R429.96.

Brown bread (25 loaves): Increased by 3% from R389.41 to R399.50.

Sugar beans (5kg): Increased by 18% from R188.71 to R223.72.

Tomatoes (6kg): Increased by 12% from R121.91 to R136.95.

Spinach (8 bunches): Increased by 16% from R98.25 to R113.65.

Cabbage (2 heads): Increased by 10% from R37.18 to R40.98.

Potatoes (10kg): Increased 1% from R104.95 to R106.44.

Full Cream Milk (6L): Increased by 1% from R97.88 to R98.52.

Eggs (60): Decreased by 2% from R178.52 to R164.06.

 

Poultry

South Africa’s poultry sector faces a pivotal year in 2025, with efforts focused on increasing local production, expanding exports, and improving consumer affordability.

ABSA’s latest AgriTrends report expects poultry price increases to ease after double-digit increases in 2022 and 2023, as a result of an expected stronger ZAR and robust growth in production by key global suppliers such as Brazil, ChickenFacts previously reported.

Meanwhile, the industry awaits a response from the National Treasury to have some chicken products exempted from Value Added Tax (VAT).

In November 2024, the South African Poultry Association (SAPA) and the Association of Meat Importers & Exporters (AMIE) submitted a proposal to National Treasury for specific chicken products, such as frozen bone-in portions and offal, to be exempted from Value Added Tax (VAT).

The submission argues that this measure could make chicken more accessible to low-income households struggling with high food prices.

The highly anticipated decision by the National Treasury is expected to be announced in February 2025.

 

Continued Disease Outbreaks

Head of economic and agribusiness research at the Agricultural Business Chamber Wandile Sihlobo in an opinion piece said that the agricultural sector continues to face outbreaks of animal diseases, including Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle, African Swine Fever (ASF) in pigs, and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in poultry.

He added that these outbreaks, which worsened in 2022, have further disrupted supply chains and contributed to rising meat prices. He said ongoing disease issues have the potential to exert upward price pressure and disrupt traditional trade rhythms associated with broiler meat. The government has addressed these challenges, strengthening farm biosecurity controls and improving veterinary support services.

Animal disease is a global challenge and healthy trade relations are one of the key activities that can help mitigate these challenges. By fostering strong trade partnerships, countries can enhance their collective ability to prevent and control animal diseases, ensuring the safety and sustainability of the global agricultural sector.

 

Geopolitical Risk Analysis on the Return of Trump

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency raises uncertainty over South Africa’s AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) benefits.

In a recent publication, the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) states that President Trump is likely to resort to conflict or the threat of conflict if he feels the US is not receiving adequate respect and benefits. Increased US tariffs on some imports and other forms of trade pressure are highly likely in 2025, particularly targeting countries circumventing tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods and components.

According to CRA, South Africa faces significant risks due to its already unfavorable bipartisan attention from Congress. With Republicans in control of the government and both houses of Congress, leading party members are pressuring the incoming administration to expel South Africa from beneficial trade arrangements like AGOA if Pretoria does not adjust its stance on China, Iran, Israel, and Russia.

CRA also stated that there is a risk that the Trump administration could redefine its strategic relationship with South Africa, viewing the country as an adversary rather than an uncertain ally, forcing South Africa to choose sides in the geopolitical power struggle between open, democratic states and closed, autocratic ones, contrary to its stated intention to maintain a non-aligned posture.

The potential changes in US trade policies could have significant implications for South Africa’s local economy and consumers:

• Impact on Jobs: If South Africa loses access to AGOA, industries like car manufacturing and citrus farming could suffer. This could lead to job losses and reduced income for workers in these sectors.
• Increased Costs: Higher tariffs and trade restrictions could lead to increased costs for imported goods. This could result in higher prices for consumers, affecting their purchasing power and overall cost of living.
• Economic Growth: Reduced access to US markets could hinder South Africa’s economic growth. The country might struggle to attract foreign investment, which could slow down industrial development and job creation.
• Inflation: Increased import costs could contribute to inflation, making everyday goods and services more expensive for South African consumers.
• Trade Diversification: South Africa might need to seek new trade partners and diversify its export markets to mitigate the impact of reduced access to the US market.

 

Overall, these changes could pose significant challenges for South Africa’s economy and consumers, requiring strategic adjustments to navigate the evolving trade landscape.

Later this week, ChickenFacts will provide expert insights on Trump’s impact on bilateral relations with South Africa.

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