By early 2026, South Africa’s poultry trade environment looks very different from what many analysts predicted a few years ago. While AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) faces political pressure, the United States poultry quota remains an important mechanism for affordability and market stability.

The challenge has not been a lack of relevance, but rather the persistent underutilisation of the quota, especially by historically disadvantaged individual (HDI) importers who face structural and financial barriers.

In practice, the lapse or exclusion of South Africa from AGOA would not fundamentally reshape poultry import flows, which are already constrained by tariffs, antidumping duties and biosecurity barriers. However, AGOA’s fate still matters for the broader trade relationship and for the long-term stability of the quota system that supports food affordability.

 

AGOA in 2025: Politics, Tariffs and the Importance of the Quota

In late 2025, United States lawmakers moved to revive AGOA after its expiry, but South Africa’s continued participation was explicitly questioned in Washington.

Given the ongoing concerns about geopolitical alignment and persistent barriers to market access, South Africa’s exclusion as a beneficiary now appears to be a foregone conclusion.

At the same time, reciprocal US tariffs have eroded the practical value of AGOA preferences for many African exporters. Yet for poultry, the AGOA-linked quota remains one of the few instruments that can meaningfully support price-sensitive consumers and broaden participation in the import sector.

Industry and trade commentary highlights several key points:

• The 72 000 tonne US bone-in quota exists on paper but has been chronically underutilised.
• HDI importers in particular struggle to access the quota because the 62% MFN (most Favoured Nation) duty applies even when they import inside the quota, making it financially unviable to participate.
• Administrative backlogs in the issuing of quota permits have further limited uptake, even among importers who are willing and able to bring in US product.

 

A 2025 analysis of the South African poultry sector notes that in 2024, South Africa imported only 11,350 tonnes of bone-in chicken from the US, and just 1,570 tonnes from January to August 2025.

These volumes are well under the 72,000-tonne limit, highlighting the need to rethink allocation and support for HDI’s.

The South African Poultry Association has called for clarity on the quota’s future, but from an affordability and transformation perspective, the quota remains a valuable tool. Supporting its continued existence and advocating for higher utilisation, especially by HDIs, is essential.

 

Decline of Poultry Imports

The most recent USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report, published in September 2025, shows that poultry imports are on a downward trajectory due to domestic recovery and protectionist measures rather than AGOA. FAS forecasts:

• Chicken meat production rising to 1.68 million tonnes in 2026.
• Consumption increasing modestly to 1.92 million tonnes.
• Poultry imports including MDM decreasing by about 5 percent to 308 000 tonnes in 2026.

 

Since the significant increase of MFN duties in 2020, bone-in chicken imports have declined sharply.

Based on the latest SARS data, bone-in imports for Jan to Nov 2025 were recorded at 65% lower than the same period in 2021. While this has provided relief to local producers, it has also reduced competition and limited affordable options for consumers.

 

Source: SARS Trade Statistics

 

Brazil Still Dominates, But Within a Smaller Import Pie

Brazil remains the dominant supplier of frozen chicken, mechanically deboned meat and offal. Even with the 62% MFN tariff on bone-in portions, Brazilian product remains cost competitive relative to other markets.

Protectionist policies and antidumping duties are expected to continue shaping the import landscape in 2026.

 

Disease, Not AGOA, Remains the Main Disruptor

HPAI continues to be the most persistent disruptor of poultry trade into South Africa.

The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD)’s updated import notices through 2025 show repeated suspensions and reinstatements of poultry imports from multiple countries including Argentina, EU member states and others.

These biosecurity measures narrow the pool of eligible suppliers and force importers to pivot quickly between origins.

There is a need for DALRRD to modernise its biosecurity approach in response to an evolving risk landscape, particularly to support the implementation of regionalisation and zoning practices.

 

Export Market Access: Where AGOA Still Matters

AGOA’s broader significance lies in market access for South African exports, including automotive and agricultural products.

For poultry specifically, AGOA’s fate has limited direct impact on current import volumes, but it contributes to the overall trade environment that influences investment and export ambitions.

 

Conclusion

The potential loss or weakening of AGOA is primarily a trade and diplomacy issue, but the US poultry quota remains an important mechanism for affordability and transformation.

• Poultry imports are declining due to tariffs, antidumping duties and shrinking market access due to disease outbreaks.
• The US quota is underutilised, largely because of administrative delays and the financial barriers faced by HDI importers.
• Supporting the quota and advocating for improved utilisation is essential for affordability and broader participation.
• Brazil is still a major supplier; however, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture is not accepting regionalisation and zoning practices of our trading partners, which threatens importers’ main source of poultry when there are disease outbreaks.

 

The central concern for SA’s poultry market is limited access to affordable protein for millions of low-income households.

Declining bilateral trade and reduced economic activity within South Africa’s poultry industry have direct implications for job creation and economic stability.

These challenges highlight the urgent need for improved governance and more effective policymaking. Addressing issues such as corruption and trade protectionism is key to fostering a more robust business climate that supports food security and mitigates malnutrition among vulnerable populations.

Meaningful progress will depend on comprehensive reforms: strengthening governance frameworks, ensuring robust and adaptive trade policies, and prioritising the renewal of critical infrastructure.

Such measures will not only enhance the resilience of South Africa’s poultry sector but also support broader economic and social advancement.