Local Food Inflation Statistics

 

Month-on-Month Comparisons (May 2025 vs. June 2025)

The Household Affordability Index reports a slight decrease of R23,46 (-0.4%) in the average household food basket, bringing the total to R5 443,12 in June 2025, down from R5 466,59 in May.

 

Price Changes in Poultry Products

Description	Price Change	Per Quantity
Frozen chicken portions	-R2,17 (-1%)	10kg
Chicken feet	-R0,34 (0%)	2kg
Gizzards	-R3,22 (+4%)	2kg
Chicken livers	-R1,61 (+2%)	2kg

 

Notable Price Increases (Month-on-Month)

Item	Month-on-Month Change
Onions	+9%
Beef	+5%
Green pepper	+4%
White sugar	+3%
Margarine	+3%

 

Notable Price Decreases (Month-on-Month)

Item	Month-on-Month Change
Potatoes	-11%
Butternut	-5%
Green Pepper	-7%
Bananas	-8%
Polony	-4%
Brown bread	-3%

 

 

Year-on-Year Comparisons (June 2024 vs. June 2025)

The average household food basket increased by R190,36 (3.6%), from R5 252,77 in June 2024 to R5 443,12 in June 2025.

 

Notable Price Increases (Year-on-Year)

Item	Year-on-Year Change
Maize meal	+17%
Samp	+18%
Cooking oil	+6%
Beef liver	+6%
Beef	+14%
Frozen chicken portions	+4%
Fish	+6%
Carrots	+24%
Spinach	+16%
Cabbage	+6%
Green Pepper	+9%
Bananas	+24%
Apples	17%
Oranges	17%

 

 

Notable Price Decreases (Year-on-Year)

Item	Year-on-Year Change
Rice	-13%
Butternut	-6%
Polony	-7%
Chicken Livers	-6%
Eggs	-5%

 

VAT on Essential Food Items

• 22 out of 44 foods in the household basket are subject to VAT (50%).
• Total VAT in June 2025: R333,13, or 6.1% of the basket.

 

VAT Policy Update

In the recent South African budget review, the proposed expansion of the value added tax (VAT) zero-rated basket of food items, which included poultry, was scrapped.

The decision to scrap a VAT 0.5% increase and the zero-rated food basket expansion was made to avoid political backlash associated with the initially proposed VAT hike. The Western Cape High Court ruling continues to hold the VAT rate at 15%.

Instead of increasing VAT, the government is implementing other tax adjustments, such as fiscal drag, increased excise duties, and fuel levies.

 

Global Food Inflation – June 2025

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128.0 points, up 0.5% from May and 5.8% higher year-on-year.

 

• Meat: +2.1%
  • Prices for bovine, pig, and ovine meats rose 6.7% year-on-year, marking a new record high.
  • Poultry meat prices fell due to abundant supplies in Brazil after mid-May export restrictions linked to avian influenza. However, prices started to recover as Brazil regained HPAI-free status and import demand picked up following eased trade restrictions.

 

• Cereals: -1.5%
  • Maize, sorghum, and barley prices fell due to abundant supplies from Argentina and Brazil.
  • Wheat prices rose on weather concerns in the EU, Russia, and the USA.
  • Rice prices dipped slightly, especially Indica varieties, due to softer demand.
  • Prices dropped 6.8% year-on-year.

 

• Vegetable Oils: +2.3%
  • Palm oil rose nearly 5% on strong global demand.
  • Soy and rapeseed oils increased due to biofuel demand and tight supply.
  • Sunflower oil declined on improved production prospects in the Black Sea region.
  • Prices rose 18.2% year-on-year.

 

• Dairy: +0.5%
  • Butter prices hit a record high amid tight supply in Oceania and the EU
  • Cheese prices rose for the third month
  • Milk powder prices declined due to subdued demand and ample supply
  • Prices rose 20.7% year-on-year.

 

• Sugar: -5.2%
  • Lowest level since April 2021
  • Decline driven by improved production outlooks in Brazil, India, and Thailand.

 

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)