Food Basket Barometer – 10 October 2024

Poultry

The August 2024 Brief on Food Inflation by the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) indicates that poultry prices, especially for Individually Quick Frozen (IQF) pieces, remained largely stable, showing just a 0.7% month-on-month rise.

After a sharp increase caused by the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak in late 2023, prices have steadily declined as production returns to normal.

IQF prices dropped 14% year-on-year, reflecting improved supply and weaker consumer demand.

 

Overall Look at Food Inflation

In August 2024, South African maize prices stayed high due to the reduced summer crop, with significant declines expected only when the new harvest arrives in 2025. Strong demand for white maize, both locally and from other Southern African countries, also played a role.

The local vegetable oil market showed mixed trends, as soybean prices declined, reflecting reduced import parity prices for soybean products like oil and protein meal.

Dairy prices rose, driven by strong global demand, especially for whole milk powder and butter.

In the meat market, beef prices dropped slightly but remained higher compared to the previous year due to increased cattle slaughters and export activity.

Fresh produce inflation hit notably for oranges and papayas, while bananas saw deflation due to higher trading volumes.

Food inflation is expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, but meat prices might rise slightly due to festive season demand towards the end of the year.

In the meantime, a continued appreciation in the exchange rate, following September’s interest rate cuts of 50 basis points in the USA and 25 basis points in South Africa could lead to reduced inflation on imported food products. Good news for South African Consumers!

For all the year-on-year inflation prices and an objective analysis, delve into the report here.

 

 

Share this Post

Related Posts