Bone-in chicken portions, particularly IQF (individually quick frozen) packs, have become increasingly expensive over the past five years.

IQF chicken is the most consumed and most affordable meat protein in South Africa, making its rising cost a significant concern for many households.

While trade policy has played a role, the inflationary pressures are multifaceted.

This article explores the driving factors influencing bone-in chicken prices, drawing on producer, retail, and import data over the last 8 years.

 

IQF Chicken Price Inflation: 2017 – 2024
Year	IQF Chicken Producer inflation (YoY)		IQF Chicken Retail inflation (YoY)	Consumer Price Index Inflation (%)
2017	3,9%	*	4,5%	4,47%
2018	5,1%		5,2%	4,56%
2019	6,4%		6,1%	3,96%
2020	2,7%		3,8%	3,05%
2021	-3,3%		10,7%	5,92%
2022	27,7%		6,0%	7,57%
2023	8,6%		13,3%	5,19%
2024	-5,7%		3,0%	2,88%
Total	45,4%		52,6%	37,6%
Sources: NAMC, DALRRD, StatsSA

 *Sourcing Note

Producer-level inflation estimates for IQF bone-in chicken portions (2017–2020) were derived from triangulated data across multiple credible sources. Primary references include the South African Broiler Market Value Chain Profile (DALRRD), quarterly Poultry Products Price Monitor reports (NAMC), and StatsSA’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for poultry products. Where direct access to archived reports was unavailable, inflation trends were modelled using year-on-year changes in input costs (maize, soy), tariff adjustments, and industry commentary from SAPA and Grain SA. Formal requests for archived reports have been submitted to NAMC and DALRRD to validate and enrich the dataset.

 

Poultry Imports: Customs Value (Average – R/KG)
Year	Chicken Bone-in Cuts Price	Rate of Inflation (YoY)	Consumer Price Index Inflation (%)
2017	R14,12		4,47%
2018	R13,39	-5,17%	4,56%
2019	R13,56	1,27%	3,96%
2020	R13,61	0,37%	3,05%
2021	R14,55	6,91%	5,92%
2022	R15,32	5,29%	7,57%
2023	R17,87	16,64%	5,19%
2024	R21,95	22,83%	2,88%
Total		53,31%	37,6%
Prices exclude duties, freight, transport, and storage costs. Source: SARS Trade Data.

 

Beyond the Duties: A Complex Cost Landscape

In March 2020, ITAC implemented Most Favoured Nation (MFN) customs duties on imported poultry to protect local producers. These duties are applicable to chicken imports from all countries except the EU, the UK and SADC nations:

• Frozen bone-in portions: 62%
• Whole frozen chicken: 82%
• Frozen boneless portions: 42%
• Frozen carcasses: 31%
• Frozen offal (heads, livers, feet): 30%

 

These measures were intended to shield the domestic industry from unfairly priced imports. Following their implementation, IQF retail inflation rose sharply from 3.8% in 2020 to 10.7% in 2021.

Producer-level inflation surged to 27.7% in 2022.

However, attributing this inflation solely to trade protection would be disingenuous. Feed costs, operational disruptions, and infrastructure challenges have all contributed to rising prices.

Maize and soybean volatility, compounded by load shedding, water supply constraints, and cold chain inefficiencies, have added layers of cost across the value chain.

These pressures have affected all poultry products, but IQF portions are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on freezing and bulk packaging.

 

Import Data: A Partial Picture

Customs data shows that the average import value of bone-in cuts rose from R13.61/kg in 2020 to R21.95/kg in 2024, a 61% increase.

However, these figures exclude duties, transport, freight, and storage costs. The landed cost to retailers and wholesalers is significantly higher, meaning the true price impact of imports is often understated in public datasets.

As imports declined, domestic supply filled the gap, but at elevated price points.

The result was a structural shift in the market, where local pricing became less tethered to global benchmarks and more responsive to internal cost dynamics and margin strategies.

 

Producer vs Retail Pricing

Between 2017 and 2024, cumulative producer-level inflation for IQF chicken reached 45.4%, while retail inflation climbed to 52.6%.

Notably, producer inflation turned negative in 2021 and again in 2024, yet retail prices remained sticky.

This suggests that retailers were slower to pass on cost relief, possibly due to margin recovery strategies or lingering supply chain constraints.

The 2023 retail inflation rate of 13.3%, despite only 8.6% producer inflation, highlights the disconnect between farmgate and shelf pricing.

For consumers, this meant continued affordability challenges even as upstream costs began to stabilise.

 

Export Limitations and Domestic Pricing

South Africa’s Poultry Master Plan (PMP) outlines ambitions to grow exports, but the reality is more constrained.

Local producers have little incentive to pursue global markets beyond neighbouring countries.

Essentially, there is no surplus poultry available for export. Despite a 1% YoY poultry production increase in 2024, South Africa still struggles to meet domestic demand, let alone produce surplus volumes for export.

Emerging farmers remain under-capacitated, and idle slaughter capacity (21.5 million birds/week vs. 22.5 million capacity) reflects systemic underutilisation.

South Africa lacks the veterinary infrastructure and residue monitoring systems required for fresh poultry exports to high-value markets like the EU and UK.

As Donald MacKay, Managing Director of XA Global Trade Advisors, told ChickenFacts, these export ambitions often serve more as political leverage than commercial strategy. “It’s lip service to get government to sign off on trade protections,” MacKay explained.

Without meaningful export channels, domestic producers remain reliant on the local market.

This lack of external competition reinforces pricing power and reduces the incentive to moderate inflation, especially when imports are constrained.

 

Policy Trade-Offs and Consumer Impact

The MFN duties increase in 2020 was implemented to allow local producers to expand and develop exports.

Despite the ambitions of the Poultry Master Plan (PMP), the poultry export strategy remains hamstrung by structural blind spots, regulatory inertia, and a domestic industry reluctant to evolve beyond its comfort zone. Little progress has been made to date.

Moreover, the MFN duties have reduced price competition in a market where affordability is critical.

IQF chicken is not a luxury item, but a primary protein source for millions of South Africans. When prices rise faster than inflation, food security risks intensify.

While 2024 saw a modest retail inflation rate of 3%, prices remain elevated compared to pre-duty levels.

The long tail of inflation suggests that structural market changes, not just temporary shocks, are driving cost dynamics.

 

Conclusion

Bone-in chicken inflation in South Africa is the result of trade policy, operational costs, infrastructure limitations, and strategic pricing.

The 2020 anti-dumping duties were a turning point, but they are only one part of the broader reality.

The challenge going forward is to balance industry protection and growth with consumer affordability and a robust trading environment.

Despite the clear obligations set out in the poultry master plan, the South African Poultry Association (SAPA) has failed to take any meaningful action towards the development of emerging farmers, leaving a critical gap in sector transformation.

It is crucial to recognise that a balanced approach to both imports and exports is essential for long-term market stability. Any country that focuses solely on either importing or exporting risks creating vulnerabilities.

Overdependence on domestic markets can lead to insularity, while excessive reliance on exports may expose producers to global shocks.

Fostering both robust export channels and open, competitive imports ensures greater resilience and reduces the risk of price volatility or supply shortages, ultimately benefitting both producers and consumers.

Transparent data, sound export strategies, and competitive sourcing will be key to ensuring that bone-in chicken remains affordable and accessible to South Africans.